Did you ever wonder what is all the maths that professional poker players seem to be doing in their head? Well a lot of the time they will be counting outs to see what chance they have of winning.
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Because the poker boom happened 15+ years ago, the number of informational products and articles that have been created since then has helped speed up the learning of the game. This factor has helped to level out the playing field and skill gap between pros and recreational players. Find out more about Texas Hold’em games here. Texas Hold'em Cheat SheetOdds Based on Outs after the Flop. If after the flop, you have: Two outs: Your odds are 11 to 1 (about 8.5 percent) A common scenario would be when you have a pair and you are hoping your pair becomes a three-of-a-kind (a set). How to count outs is one of the first things people learn when they pick up a poker book or are taught the game by a friend. When played properly poker is a game of making good decisions based on the odds you are being offered. People often say that poker is a game of mathematics and probability. In order to play profitably over the long run, knowing and being able to apply the mathematical skill aspect to your game is certainly true! The strategy involves a part of the game that deals with calculating (1) outs, (2) poker pot odds and (3) your poker equity in a pot. How Knockout Poker works. Knockout Poker tournaments are special MTT and Sit & Go tournaments where the prize money is split, with a part going to the overall prize pool, and the other part distributed among players for each opponent they knock out.
Learning the basics of counting outs is another step on your journey to becoming a proficient poker player. But first what exactly are poker outs?
An out is any card that will improve your hand to better than that of your opponent. A common example is when you have four hearts in your hand and need the fifth heart to complete the flush (i.e. a flush draw) . If you count the number of hearts left in the deck (13 total minus the 4 in your hand = 9), you know how many outs you have and can work out the probabaility of winning the hand.
So counting outs is just very basic addition and multiplication.
Another simple example is when you have a flush draw such as A♥ K♥ of hearts on T♥ 7♥ 2♠ – you currently only have Ace high but any heart will give you a flush.
There are 9 hearts in total which will complete your draw however one of those hearts (2♥) may give your opponent a full house.
You can also hit an ace (A♠, A♣, A♦) or king (K♠, K♣, K♦) but these cards aren’t always guaranteed to give you the best hand. Generally speaking, you only count the outs which are sure to give you the best hand.
Table Of Contents
- Considerations and additional points when counting outs
Counting Outs: The Process
The first question you need to ask yourself when counting outs is ’How many cards in the deck will give me the hand I want? ‘
For example if you have a flush draw you will have 9 outs, if you have a gut shot you will have 4 outs, and with an opened ended straight draw you have 8 outs. A table below summarizes each draw with number of outs.
| Draw type | Example hand | Example Board | No. of outs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three of a kind draw | 5♥ 5 ♠ | A♦ 7♣ 2♥ | 2 |
| Gutshot straight draw | 7♥ 6♥ | A♣ 5♦ 3♠ | 4 |
| Open ended straight draw | K♠ Q♣ on | J♥ T♥ 2♣ | 8 |
| Flush draw | A♥ 2♥ | T♥ 7♣ 3♥ | 9 |
| Open ended & flush draw | J♥ T♥ | 9♥ 8♥3♠ | 15 |
Now that you know how many outs you have you need to actually use that number There is no point in calculating your outs if we aren’t going to use it in our decision making process.
The easiest way to do this is using the rule of 2 and 4…
The rule of 2 and 4
This rule is pretty simple.
To work out your equity or chance of winning when seeing the turn you multiply the number of outs by 2. Thus if we have 9 outs we will multiply that by 2 to get 18% equity.
For example if we are on the turn and want to know our chance of hitting by the river this is the method we would use.
To estimate your equity or chance of winning when on the flop you multiply the number of outs by 4. Again, if we have 9 outs we will multiply that by 4 to get 36% equity. For example if we are on the flop and want to know our chance of hitting by the river.
The rule of 2 and 4 is only an estimation for our equity but it is usually accurate giving our equity to within a percentage point or two.
Part of counting your outs is understanding if you are ahead or behind (and by how much) so it is important to understand your opponent's range. For more information on ranges see thefollowing link.
When we know our equity we can make a decision whether our hand is worth continuing with.
This method is actually pretty accurate, particularly for low numbers of outs. See the table below where I compared equity for each situation using the 2 and 4 method and equilab.
| Draw type | Equity on the flop | Equity on the turn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rule of 2&4 | Equilab | Rule of 2&4 | Equilab | |
| Three of a kind draw | 8% | 9% | 4% | 5% |
| Gutshot straight draw | 16% | 18% | 8% | 10% |
| Open ended straight draw | 32% | 30% | 16% | 19% |
| Flush draw | 36% | 33% | 18% | 18% |
| Open ended & flush draw | 60% | 60% | 30% | 39% |
The above table assumes that only the the primary draw goes towards our chances of winning. In reality, you will have slightly more equity than the rule of 2 and 4 suggests as you will often have equity from backdoor draws and overcards.
The overall process for counting outs and calculating equity
- Determine what hand you have or could potentially have. If you are not sure of the hand rankings make sure you check them out
- Count how many cards will give you that hand
- Calculate your equity using the rule of 2 and 4
- Determine if your hand is worth continuing vs a bet by weighting your equity vs pot odds.
Considerations and additional points when counting outs
Double Counting
One must always be careful not to double count outs. With a big draw such as a straight and flush draw we will have 9 outs to the flush and 8 outs to the straight. However, of the straight draw outs there will be two which also complete the flush; thus we must remove these double counted outs.
As a result we no longer have 17 outs (9 flush + 8 straight), we now have 15 outs (9 flush + 6 straight or 7 flush + 8 straight)
The Double gutter
One interesting hand type is the double gutter. A double gutter is as the name suggests a double gut shot.
An example is when you have JT on AQ8 board. Any 9 or K will make you a straight. A double gutter can sometimes be difficult to spot, even for experienced players.
However, that makes them more powerful than other draws, as when you hit your hand it is more disguised. A more disguised hand is more likely to get paid off when you hit.
The Monster Draw
Another interesting hand type is the ‘monster’ draw. These are draws with typically 12 or more outs such as a flush draw + straight draw, or a flush draw plus pair type hand.
These hands have so many outs that it almost never wrong to commit all your chips (given you have a reasonable stack size).
The most powerful of all these hand types is the open ended straight flush draw- J♥T♥ on Q♥9♥5♣.
With this hand, not only do you have a flush and a straight draw but you have two cards which are the absolute nuts – you cannot ever be beaten if you hit the K♥ or the 8♥. The importance of these 2 outs cannot be underestimated.
One issue with monster draws is that the rule and two and four begins to break down- the rule overestimates the equity. Although there will be very few situations where you will be folding a big draw.
All Outs Are Not Equal – Anti-outs
Another aspect we need to take into account is that not all outs are created equal. Outs to the nuts (the strongest hand possible) are always the most sought after type of outs; unfortunately we won’t always have outs to the nuts.
In most cases we will count our flush draw out as a normal out but it can complete a full house for our opponent.
Take for example our opponent has 77 on T♥7♥2♠: we will count the 2♥ as an out when we have a heart flush draw.
However, it will improve our opponent's hand at the same time as ours; unfortunately for us that will be to a full house which beats a flush.
We will lose a lot of money in this example.
A further example of drawing to not nutted outs is the ‘dummy’ or bottom end of the straight. When we have the bottom two cards of a four to a straight, for example 87 on T95 flop, we will be dominated by a hand such as KQ; if a jack hits we will both complete a straight but KQ will have the nut straight, beating our lower straight.
As such, drawing to the upper end of the straight is much more powerful. Although, it is not always possible to avoid drawing to the dummy end of the straight. However, take into account they are less powerful than other straight draws and hence you should be less likely to proceed with them vs betting action.
We can apply a similar thought process to overcard outs: AK on T52 board. If we hit our Ace or King on the turn we may not still have the best hand. Someone may have a set or two pair already or they might make two pair with the card which helps us.
Counting Outs Real Life Example:
How many outs do we have here?
Our opponent has 44 and we have 9♥8♥ on T♥5♣3♥7♠ board.
- We have two overcards to our opponent so that is 3 outs for the 9 and 3 outs for the 8 for a total of 6.
- We have a J and a 6 to complete our straight which is 4 each for a total of 8.
- We also have a flush draw of which there is 13 hearts in total. We have 2 of them hearts, our opponent has one and there are two on the board. That leaves 8 hearts.
That gives a total of 22 outs..
However we have double counted some of the outs. The 6♥ and the J♥ are counted in the flush and the straight counts we made.
We should only count them once meaning that we now have a total of 20 outs. Using the rule of 2 and 4, we know that we have approximately 40% equity since we are on the turn.
That means we should be calling almost any sized bet on this turn if we knew our opponent had a pair of 4's on the board.
Conclusion
Poker Outs Explained Game
Counting outs is not the most difficult of tasks a poker player must perform; however but it is one of the most useful. If you know how to count and think about your outs you are well of some of the poker population.
Counting outs allows you to understand how likely you are to win the hand. This allow you to decide whether you want to continue versus a bet or raise and hence make more informed decisions at the poker table.
The more likely to win the hand, the less likely you should be to fold.
Follow up this lesson with another on Pot Equity.
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Learning how to count your outs and calculate your chances of winning the pot are two of the most important skills winning poker players possess. The whole process sounds a lot harder than it actually is but it does take a little study to get the hang of it. Once you do, however, your outs and odds calculations will come without thought.
Outs Explained
'Out' is simply a term used to describe any yet-to-come card that will win the hand for you. For example, if you have a diamond flush draw, any diamond remaining in the deck would be considered an out. Because there are 13 cards of each suit in the deck and you have seen four of them already (2 in your hand and two on the board), you would have 9 outs in this example.
Another example would be if you had two pair but think your opponent has a better hand. You have 4 outs to win the hand because there are 4 cards left in the deck that could improve your two pair to a full house.
Counting Your Outs
All your calculations are useless if you don't count your outs correctly. Don't worry about what may or may not be in your opponents' hands; just count your outs as if it's just you and the deck.
The most common draws are pretty straightforward. Flushes have 9 outs, open-ended straight draws have 8 outs and inside straight draws have 4 outs. Other draws are harder to count because you might not know for sure what cards you need to win your hand. These include draws like improving from one pair to two pair, two pair to full house, and so on.
With those less-defined types of draws, the weaker your opponent's hand, the more outs you have. Say you have AK and missed the flop but you think your opponent only has a low pair. You would have 6 outs - 3 aces and 3 kings - to beat your opponent.
Counterfeit Outs
Counterfeit outs are outs that don't actually help your hand - in fact they're quite dangerous. For example, let's say you are still on that flush draw but your opponent has a set. You need to discount any flush cards that pair the board because those cards would give your opponent a full house. Counterfeit outs can give you very expensive second-best hands so make sure you never forget to discount these from your outs total.
Poker Outs Explained Games
Calculating the Odds of Catching an Out
There are two ways to calculate the chances of you catching an out. One method involves a big, nasty equation and the other method is simple but not as accurate. Long equations are useless at the poker table so we'll cover the simple method here.
After you know how many outs you have, multiply that number by 4 to get your approximate chance of hitting that card on either of the next two streets. With a flush draw, you multiply your 9 outs by 4 to get 36%. This is close enough and simple enough to be useful at the tables.
If you're on the turn and only have one card to go, multiply your outs by 2 to find the percentage of chance you have. With a flush draw, you would take 9 times 2 to get an 18% chance to hit on the next card.